With several big precursors down, the Oscar race is starting to shape up. One of the stronger predictors in the Best Animated Feature race has been the Golden Globes as a precursor. This morning, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their nominees for all major categories, including Best Animated Feature.
The nominees for Best Animated Feature included:
“The Good Dinosaur”
“The Peanuts Movie”
“Shaun the Sheep: The Movie”
The list is definitely a solid one for this year, with the only one that feels vulnerable come Oscar time being “Shaun the Sleep.” The top four to this point have clearly been the Pixar films, “Anomalisa” and “The Peanuts Movie,” making this list a very strong predictor of the Oscar nominations in January.
Since 2010, the Golden Globes have hit on 56% of the eventual nominees for Best Animated Feature, but even that number is misleading. Two years, the Globes only nominated 3 films, and both times all three films went on to get nominated for the Oscar. With that in mind, the Globe conversation rate jumps to 66%. That could suggest another one of the films listed above would be vulnerable, but with the relatively weak competition, the number is likely to improve.
However, on another level “Inside Out” looks a little more vulnerable than it did a week ago. The Globes would have been an excellent place for Best Score, or Best Screenplay. In the past, other Pixar films have shown up in these categories (such as “Up” in 2009). It would have been good for another couple nominations for “Inside Out” to bolster it’s Best Picture campaign.
However, other films like “Toy Story 3” have been able to turn around from the Globes and receive significantly more nominations. In the case of “Toy Story 3,” the film received four more nominations than it had gotten at the Golden Globes, including a Best Picture nomination. What will help is the expansion of “Best Screenplay” at the Oscars to account for original and adapted screenplays.
Disney also picked up a nomination for “Bridge of Spies” in Supporting Actor for Mark Rylance. He was also cited at the Screen Actors Guild nominations yesterday, making him a frontrunner for the award. The popular actor will also be seen in the Disney/Spielberg collaboration “The BFG” next year.
The Golden Globes are set to air on January 10th, 2016. The Oscar nominations will be announced on January 14th, 2016.